Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Abstract

Objective: To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan).

Methods: We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000-2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software.

Results: Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000-2002, 2003-2005 and 2006-2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade.

Conclusion: There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.