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. 2012 Sep;32(3):205-22.
doi: 10.1088/0952-4746/32/3/205. Epub 2012 Jul 19.

RadRAT: a radiation risk assessment tool for lifetime cancer risk projection

Amy Berrington de Gonzalez  1 , A Iulian Apostoaei, Lene H S Veiga, Preetha Rajaraman, Brian A Thomas, F Owen Hoffman, Ethel Gilbert, Charles Land
Affiliations

RadRAT: a radiation risk assessment tool for lifetime cancer risk projection

Amy Berrington de Gonzalez et al. J Radiol Prot. 2012 Sep.

Abstract

Risk projection methods allow for timely assessment of the potential magnitude of radiation-related cancer risks following low-dose radiation exposures. The estimation of such risks directly through observational studies would generally require infeasibly large studies and long-term follow-up to achieve reasonable statistical power. We developed an online radiation risk assessment tool (RadRAT) which can be used to estimate the lifetime risk of radiation-related cancer with uncertainty intervals following a user-specified exposure history (https://irep.nci.nih.gov/radrat). The uncertainty intervals constitute a key component of the program because of the various assumptions that are involved in such calculations. The risk models used in RadRAT are broadly based on those developed by the BEIR VII committee for estimating lifetime risk following low-dose radiation exposure of the US population for eleven site-specific cancers. We developed new risk models for seven additional cancer sites, oral, oesophagus, gallbladder, pancreas, rectum, kidney and brain/central nervous system (CNS) cancers, using data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The lifetime risk estimates are slightly higher for RadRAT than for BEIR VII across all exposure ages mostly because the weighting of the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk models was conducted on an arithmetic rather than a logarithmic scale. The calculator can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risk from both uniform and non-uniform doses that are acute or chronic. It is most appropriate for low-LET radiation doses < 1 Gy, and for individuals with life-expectancy and cancer rates similar to the general population in the US.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Application of DDREF for acute and chronic exposures
Figure 2
Figure 2
Latency adjustment factor applied for most solid cancers
Figure 3
Figure 3
Lifetime risk estimates (per 1000 exposed individuals) for all cancers, by sex and age, following 0.1 Gy chronic exposure
Figure 3
Figure 3
Lifetime risk estimates (per 1000 exposed individuals) for all cancers, by sex and age, following 0.1 Gy chronic exposure
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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