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Meta-Analysis
. 2012 Oct;23(10):1729-37.
doi: 10.1007/s10552-012-9959-0. Epub 2012 Jul 24.

Lifetime risk for cancer death by sex and smoking status: the lifetime risk pooling project

Andrew Gawron  1 , Lifang Hou, Hongyan Ning, Jarett D Berry, Donald M Lloyd-Jones
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Lifetime risk for cancer death by sex and smoking status: the lifetime risk pooling project

Andrew Gawron et al. Cancer Causes Control. 2012 Oct.

Abstract

Background: Understanding how sex and tobacco exposure may modify lifetime risks for cancer mortality is important for effective communication of risk in targeted public health messages.

Objective: To determine lifetime risk estimates for cancer death associated with sex and smoking status in the United States.

Methods: A pooled cohort design using ten well-defined epidemiologic cohorts including middle-aged and older individuals was used to estimate the lifetime risk for cancer death at selected index ages, with death from non-cancer causes as the competing risk, by sex and smoking status.

Results: There were a total of 11,317 cancer-related deaths. At age 45 years, the lifetime risk of cancer death for male smokers is 27.7 % (95 % CI 24.0-31.4 %) compared to 15.8 % (95 % CI 12.7-18.9 %) for male non-smokers. At age 45 years, the lifetime risk of cancer death for female smokers is 21.7 % (95 % CI 18.8-24.6 %) compared to 13.2 % (95 % CI 11.0-15.4 %) for female non-smokers. Remaining lifetime risk for cancer death declined with age, and men have a greater risk for cancer death compared to women. Adjustment for competing risk of death, particularly representing cardiovascular mortality, yielded a greater change in lifetime risk estimates for men and smokers compared to women and non-smokers.

Conclusions: At the population level, the lifetime risk for cancer death remains significantly higher for smokers compared to non-smokers, regardless of sex. These estimates may provide clinicians with useful information for counseling individual patients and highlight the need for continued public health efforts related to smoking cessation.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
KMCI and LTR stratified by cohort
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
KMCI and LTR by age, smoking status, and gender
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
KMCI and LTR by age, smoking status, and gender
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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