[Estimation and prediction of incidence, mortality and prevalence on liver cancer, in 2008, China]

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of liver cancer in 2008, China.

Methods: Data from both 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of liver cancer in 2008 in the country by using the mathematical models to predict the liver cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years.

Results: In 2008, the incident cases of liver cancer was 402 208 (14.3% of the total cancers) and the number of deaths from liver cancer was 372 079 (19.0% of the total cancers). The incidence rate was 25.7/100 000, ranking the third among all cancers. The mortality rate was 23.7/100 000, ranking the second among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence of liver cancer was 296 082 (6.4% of the total cancers) with the proportion as 27.7/ 100 000, ranking the sixth among all the cancers. 72.8% of the liver cancer cases appeared in men and the sex ratio of male to female was 2.7:1. In terms of deaths due to liver cancer, 74.3% of them occurred in men, with sex ratio of male to female as 2.9:1. At any age group, the incidence and mortality of liver cancer among males were higher than those of females. Liver cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years of age, particularly among males. Data under our prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.

Conclusion: Liver cancer is one of the most important public health issues in China. Both incidence and mortality of liver cancer have been increasing in China. The key populations for liver cancer prevention and control programs should be those who were older than 40-year-old, particularly on men.