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. 2012;7(7):e41135.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041135. Epub 2012 Jul 24.

The dynamics, causes and possible prevention of Hepatitis E outbreaks

Betty Nannyonga  1 , David J T Sumpter, Joseph Y T Mugisha, Livingstone S Luboobi
Affiliations

The dynamics, causes and possible prevention of Hepatitis E outbreaks

Betty Nannyonga et al. PLoS One. 2012.

Abstract

Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. In this figure, we plot the data from the Kitgum outbreak and show how it was fit to the model.
In (a), we plot the data, which is then fit using (log-)linear regression shown in (b), and then, using parameters from the PottersWheel fitting tool, we run the model again and this is shown in (c) The parameters used are formula image.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Evolutin of infection with time: Malaria infected, M, are represented by the magenta line, the Exposed, E, by blue, and the Infected, I by the red line.
Figure (b) shows the phase space portrait in the S-I plane. formula image is 2, formula image, and formula image. Other parameter values are given in Table 2.
Figure 3
Figure 3. In this figure, we show the analytical calculation of against in (a), with assumption that , , and .
The plot of the transmission rate, formula image against increase in susceptibility to Hepatitis E of malaria infected individuals is shown in (b), formula image, using parameters estimated from fitting tool.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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