[Analysis and prediction of liver cancer incidence in China]

Abstract

Objective: Based on the cancer registry data during 1998 - 2007, to analyze the incidence of liver cancer in China and predict the trend of incidence of liver cancer between 2008 and 2015.

Methods: Liver cancer incidence data from cancer registry between 1998 and 2007 was collected, including a total of 115 417 cases, covering 446 734 668 person-year. We calculated the annual incidence rate of liver cancer by gender and area. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated by the world's population age structure. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the incidence trend and calculate annual percent change (APC). Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the incidence trend and predict the incidence trend between 2008 and 2015.

Results: From 1998 to 2007, according to the data from cancer registry, the liver cancer incidence was 25.84/100 000 (115 417/446 734 668), with the ASR at 18.82/100 000. In urban areas, the male incidence was 34.30/100 000 (58 353/170 131 309), with ASR at 24.99/100 000; while the female incidence was 12.33/100 000 (20 324/164 830 893), with ASR at 7.99/100 000. In rural areas, the male incidence was 48.56/100 000 (27 378/56 377 236), with ASR at 42.27/100 000; while the female incidence was 16.90/100 000 (9362/55 395 230), with ASR at 13.52/100 000. During the decade, in urban areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 1.1% and -0.5%, with ASR at -0.5% and -1.9%; while in rural areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 3.7% and 3.1%, with ASR at 1.9% and 1.3%. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that in urban areas, the male and female incidence of liver cancer in 2015 would reach 30.73/100 000 (113 279 cases) and 10.44/100 000 (35 978 cases), with ASR at 23.70/100 000 and 7.21/100 000, respectively; while in rural areas, the incidence rates would increase to 51.67/100 000 (182 382 cases) and 15.03/100 000 (49 580 cases), with ASR at 39.80/100 000 and 10.45/100 000, respectively.

Conclusion: The incidence of liver cancer will increase between 2008 and 2015, but its ASR will decrease slightly. In the near future, the number of new liver cancer cases will keep increasing. Liver cancer is still the dominant cancer and one key point for cancer prevention and control in China.