Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling study

Abstract

Objectives: Consumption of red and processed meat (RPM) is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and high intakes of these foods increase the risks of several leading chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to use newly derived estimates of habitual meat intakes in UK adults to assess potential co-benefits to health and the environment from reduced RPM consumption.

Design: Modelling study using dietary intake data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of British Adults.

Setting: British general population.

Methods: Respondents were divided into fifths by energy-adjusted RPM intakes, with vegetarians constituting a sixth stratum. GHG emitted in supplying the diets of each stratum was estimated using data from life-cycle analyses. A feasible counterfactual UK population was specified, in which the proportion of vegetarians measured in the survey population doubled, and the remainder adopted the dietary pattern of the lowest fifth of RPM consumers.

Outcome measures: Reductions in risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes and colorectal cancer, and GHG emissions, under the counterfactual.

Results: Habitual RPM intakes were 2.5 times higher in the top compared with the bottom fifth of consumers. Under the counterfactual, statistically significant reductions in population aggregate risks ranged from 3.2% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.7) for diabetes in women to 12.2% (6.4 to 18.0) for colorectal cancer in men, with those moving from the highest to lowest consumption levels gaining about twice these averages. The expected reduction in GHG emissions was 0.45 tonnes CO(2) equivalent/person/year, about 3% of the current total, giving a reduction across the UK population of 27.8 million tonnes/year.

Conclusions: Reduced consumption of RPM would bring multiple benefits to health and environment.

Figure 1

Reported and estimated habitual intakes of red and processed meat across strata based on energy-adjusted red and processed meat intake (mean and 95% CI). Intakes in mean g/day following energy adjustment and standardisation to sex-specific mean total reported energy intake. Overall factual and counterfactual (CF) mean intakes are also shown. V, vegetarian; F1–5, fifths of energy-adjusted red and processed meat intake (F1=lowest intake).

Figure 2

Diet-related standardised energy-adjusted CO2-e emissions according to dietary component across sex-specific categories of energy-adjusted red and processed meat intake (based on estimated habitual intake of red and processed meats). V, vegetarian; F1–5, fifths of energy-adjusted red and processed meat intake (F1=lowest intake)