Short-term general recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders: validation of the Washington State Juvenile Court Prescreen Assessment

Abstract

It is important to examine whether general risk-assessment instruments developed for nonsex offenders can also be applied to sex offenders, because juvenile sex offenders are much more likely to reoffend with a nonsexual offense than a sexual offense. This study examined to what extent the Washington State Juvenile Court Prescreen Assessment (WSJCPA) can be used to assess the risk for general recidivism among different types of juvenile sex offenders. The predictive validity of the WSJCPA was examined separately for the following subgroups: boys convicted for a misdemeanor sexual offense against a peer (n = 381), boys convicted for a felony sexual offense against a peer (n = 282), boys convicted for a sexual offense against a younger child (n = 521), and girls convicted for a sexual offense (n = 71) and two comparison groups of male (n = 15,155) and female (n = 5,811) juvenile nonsex offenders. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve scores for general recidivism ranged between .64 and .73. The WSJCPA proved to be at least equally predictive of general offending among juvenile sex and nonsex offenders groups.

Keywords: general recidivism; juvenile sex offenders; risk assessment; risk factors for general recidivism.