[Trend analysis and projection of cancer incidence in China between 1989 and 2008]

Abstract

Objective: Nationwide cancer incidence data were used to analyze the trends of cancer incidence in China in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy.

Methods: We retrieved and re-sorted valid cancer incidence data from the National Central Cancer Registry Database over the 20 year-period 1989-2008. Crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate were calculated for analysis. Annual percent changes in incidence for all cancers combined were estimated using Joinpoint software.

Results: The cancer incidence rate in cancer registration areas was increased from 184.81/10(5) in 1989 to 286.69/10(5) in 2008 (from 209.33/10(5) to 307.04/10(5) in urban and from 176.10/10(5) to 269.57/10(5) in rural areas). Uptrends of crude cancer incidence were shown in both male and female in urban and rural areas over the 20 year-period. After standardized by age, overall incidence rate kept stable with 0.5% annual increase in urban and no change in rural areas. Since 2000, the cancer incidences in both sexes and areas were significantly increased. The incidence increased for most major cancers, especially lung cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer and cervical cancer.

Conclusions: Over the 20 year-period 1989-2008, cancer incidence of most cancers has been increasing by time. The incidences of gastric cancer, liver cancer and esophageal cancer still keep gradually increasing. The incidences of lung cancer, female breast cancer, colorectal cancer and cervical cancer are markedly going up, so that cancer prevention and control should be enhanced. Cancer registration will play an important role on cancer control in China along with the number of registries increasing and data quality improving.