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Review
. 2012 Sep:1268:14-20.
doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2012.06665.x.

Population shifts and the future of stroke: forecasts of the future burden of stroke

George Howard  1 , David C Goff
Affiliations
Review

Population shifts and the future of stroke: forecasts of the future burden of stroke

George Howard et al. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2012 Sep.

Abstract

Population distribution estimates by age and race/ethnicity from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2010 and 2050 were combined with estimates of stroke incidence from population-based surveillance studies to forecast the distribution of incident stroke cases for the years 2010 and 2050. Over these 40 years, the number of incident strokes will more than double, with the majority of the increase among the elderly (age 75+) and minority groups (particularly Hispanics). These increases are likely to present major logistical, scientific, and ethnical issues in the near future.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
U.S. Census projection of the population distribution for years 2010 and 2050 shown by race/ethnicity and age.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projection of the distribution of incident stroke events for the years 2010 and 2050, shown by race/ethnicity and age (for ages 45 and over). This projected distribution of incident stroke is the product of the shifts in the population (see Fig. 1) and estimates of stroke incidence (see Table 1).
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References

    1. U.S. Census Bureau. [accessed on 24 November 2011];Table 14: Projections of the Non- Hispanic White Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. 2012 Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.
    1. U.S. Census Bureau. [accessed on 24 November 2011];Table 15: Projections of the Black Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. 2012 Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.
    1. U.S. Census Bureau. [accessed on 24 November 2011];Table 20: Projections of the Hispanic Population (Any Race) by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. 2012 Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.
    1. U.S. Census Bureau. [accessed on 24 November 2011];Table 17: Projections of the Asian Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. 2012 Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.
    1. U.S. Census Bureau. [accessed on 24 November 2011];Table 16: Projections of the American Indian and Alaska Native Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. 2012 Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.

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