The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis

Abstract

Retrospective questions on educational attainment in national surveys and censuses tend to over-estimate high school graduation rates by 15-20% points relative to administrative records. Administrative data on educational enrollment are, however, only available at the aggregate level (state, school district, and school levels) and the recording of inter-school transfers are generally incomplete. With access to linked individual-level administrative records from a very large "West Coast metropolitan school district" we track patterns of high school attrition and on-time high school graduation of individual students. Even with adjustments for the omission of out-of-district transfers (estimates of omission are presented), the results of this study show that failure in high school, as indexed by retention and attrition, are almost as common as on-time high school graduation. In addition to the usual risk factors of disadvantaged background, we find that the "9th grade shock"-an unpredicted decline in academic performance upon entering high school-is a key mechanism behind the continuing crisis of high school attrition.

Figure 1. Educational Attainment of the Population 25 Years and Over by Age: 1947 to 2003

Note: prior 1964, data are shown for 1947, 1950, 1952, 1957, 1959, and 1962. Sourece: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey and the 1950 Census of of Population. Source: Stoops, Nicole. 2004. “Educational Attainment in the United States: 2003” Current Population Reports P20-550. Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Figure 2

Students enrolled, by Grade Level: Averages for Academic Years from 1997-98 to 2004-05. Source: Merged grade history files (MRDF) of enrolled students from 1997-98 to 2004-05 in a West Coast metropolitan school district. Notes: These figures are the numbers of enrolled students in the fall semester of each academic year, averaged across 8 academic years.

Figure 3

The Temporal Process of High School Careers and Graduation: Annual Enrollment in Modal and Below Modal Grades for 6 Years After Entering 9^th Grade

Figure 4

Cohort Probabilities of High School Progression, Retention, and Attrition and Annual Student Status for 1,000 Entering Ninth Graders: Averages from 3 Cohorts of Students Entering High School from 1996 to 1998. a) Net exits include students who dropped out of high school and those who transferred out of the school district. b) Students who graduate late (5 or 6 years after entering high school). c) Students who are still enrolled after 6 years and those with sufficient credits to graduate.