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. 2012 Sep 30;2(5):e000926.
doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-000926. Print 2012.

Estimate of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India 2008-2009

Arvind Pandey  1 , Damodar Sahu, Taoufi Bakkali, Dcs Reddy, S Venkatesh, Shashi Kant, M Bhattacharya, Yujwal Raj, Partha Haldar, Deepak Bhardwaj, Nalini Chandra
Affiliations

Estimate of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India 2008-2009

Arvind Pandey et al. BMJ Open. .

Abstract

Objectives: To update the estimation of the adult HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in India for the year 2008-2009 with the combination of improved data and methods.

Design: Based on HIV sentinel surveillance (HSS) data and a set of epidemiological assumptions, estimates of HIV prevalence and burden in India have been derived.

Setting: HSS sites spread over all the States of India.

Participants: Secondary data from HSS sites which include attendees of antenatal clinics and sites under targeted interventions of high-risk groups, namely, female sex workers (FSW), intravenous drug users (IDU) and men having sex with men (MSM).

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Estimates of adult HIV prevalence and PLHIV in India and its states.

Results: The adult HIV prevalence in India has declined to an estimated 0.31% (0.25-0.39%) in 2009 against 0.36% (0.29-0.45%) in 2006. Among the high prevalence states, the HIV prevalence has declined in Tamil Nadu to 0.33% in 2009 and other states show either a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time period 2006-2009. There are states in the low prevalence states where the adult HIV prevalence has risen over the last 4 years. The estimated number of PLHIV in India is 2.4 million (1.93-3.04 million) in 2009. Of which, 39% are women, children under 15 years of age account for 4.4% of all infections, while people aged 15-49 years account for 82.4% of all infections.

Conclusions: The estimated adult prevalence has declined in few states, a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time. In future, efforts may be made to examine the implications of the emerging trend of the HIV prevalence on the recent infections in the study population.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Adult HIV prevalence trend from 2006 to 2009, India.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Map 1: Adult HIV Prevalence (%) by state, 2009.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Adult HIV prevalence trend from 2006 to 2009, Indian states.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Map 2: Estimated number of HIV infection by state, 2009.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. National Institute of Health & Family Welfare . Country Report on Annual HIV Sentinel Surveillance, 2006, New Delhi: National AIDS Control Organization (NACO), Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, 2007
    1. International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) and Macro International India, IIPS, Mumbai: National Family Health Survey, 2005–2006 (NFHS-3), 2007
    1. Dandona L, Lakshmi V, Sudha T, et al. A population based study of human immunodeficiency virus in south India reveals major differences from sentinel surveillance-based estimates. BMC Med 2006;4:31–49 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Dandona L, Lakshmi V, Kumar GA, et al. Is the HIV burden in India being over estimated? BMC Public Health 2006;6:308–17 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Pandey A, Reddy DCS, Ghys P, et al. Improved estimate of India's HIV burden in 2006. Indian J Med Res 2009;129:50–8 - PubMed