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. 2012;33(4):341-52.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the NIS-LAMS cohort

K Syrjänen  1 , I Shabalova, L Sarian, P Naud, A Longatto-Filho, S Derchain, V Kozachenko, S Zakharchenko, C Roteli-Martins, R Nerovjna, L Kljukina, S Tatti, M Branovskaja, M Branca, V Grunjberga, M Erzen, A Juschenko, L Serpa Hammes, J Podistov, S Costa, S Syrjänen; NIS Study Research Group; LAMS Study Research Group
Affiliations
  • PMID: 23091888

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the NIS-LAMS cohort

K Syrjänen et al. Eur J Gynaecol Oncol. 2012.

Abstract

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these competing events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models.

Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariates associated with these competing events.

Study design and methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114).

Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance ofASCUS+ Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+ Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+ Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective.

Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

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