[Was the current surplus of neurosurgeons predictable in 2009? Analysis of the situation based on the Report of supply and demand of medical specialists in Spain (2008-2025)]

Abstract

Introduction: In 2009 the Spanish Ministry of Health (SMH) published the report of supply and demand of medical specialists in Spain (2008-2025), in which our specialty was considered as presenting a moderate deficit of consultants. However, Spanish neurosurgery is currently in a situation of having a surplus of neurosurgeons.

Objectives: To determine whether it was possible to predict the current excess of neurosurgeons in 2009 and to forecast the most likely perspective of supply and demand in 2017.

Material and methods: Raw data extracted from the SMH report, information on the ages of the Spanish neurosurgeons obtained from the study performed by our Board of Directors in 2001, and annual mortality rates for different age ranges provided by the National Institute of Statistics, were used to predict the evolution of supply and demand of neurosurgeons for the periods 2008-2012 and 2013-2017.

Results: The current situation of an excess of specialists was predictable in 2009, and if appropriate measures are not taken, a surplus of more than 100 neurosurgeons is likely in 2017, with an unemployment rate above 26% in the worst scenario.

Conclusions: In order to match the actual and future demand of specialists, it is necessary and urgent to reduce the number of neurosurgical in-training positions. To achieve this goal, it is essential to obtain periodical and up-to-date structural information of the different Neurosurgery Departments and Units, and to revisit the accreditation terms of the more than fifty current teaching units.