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Comparative Study
. 2013 Mar;16(3):293-300.
doi: 10.1093/icvts/ivs480. Epub 2012 Nov 23.

Validation of EuroSCORE II on a single-centre 3800 patient cohort

Manuel Carnero-Alcázar  1 , Jacobo Alberto Silva Guisasola, Fernando José Reguillo Lacruz, Luis Carlos Maroto Castellanos, Javier Cobiella Carnicer, Enrique Villagrán Medinilla, Teresa Tejerina Sánchez, José Enrique Rodríguez Hernández
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Validation of EuroSCORE II on a single-centre 3800 patient cohort

Manuel Carnero-Alcázar et al. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg. 2013 Mar.

Abstract

Objectives: To compare and validate the new European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II with EuroSCORE at our institution.

Methods: The logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were calculated on the entire patient cohort undergoing major cardiac surgery at our centre between January 2005 and December 2010. The goodness of fit was compared by means of the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared test and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves of both scales applied to the same sample of patients. These analyses were repeated and stratified by the type of surgery.

Results: Mortality of 5.66% was observed, with estimated mortalities according to logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II of 9 and 4.46%, respectively. The AUC for EuroSCORE (0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-0.85) was lower than that for EuroSCORE II (0.85, 95% CI 0.83-0.87) without the differences being statistically significant (P = 0.056). Both scales showed a good discriminative capacity for all the pathologies subgroups. The two scales showed poor calibration in the sample: EuroSCORE (χ(2) = 39.3, P(HL) < 0.001) and EuroSCORE II (χ(2) = 86.69, P(HL) < 0.001). The calibration of EuroSCORE was poor in the groups of patients undergoing coronary (P(HL) = 0.01), valve (P(HL) = 0.01) and combined coronary valve surgery (P(HL) = 0.012); and that of EuroSCORE II in the group of coronary (P(HL) = 0.001) and valve surgery (P(HL) < 0.001) patients.

Conclusions: EuroSCORE II demonstrated good discriminative capacity and poor calibration in the patients undergoing major cardiac surgery at our centre.

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Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Observed, EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II expected mortality.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
ROC curves for the global sample. P is the probability for z ≥ zi [2]. P < 0.05 is considered significant.
Figure 3:
Figure 3:
ROC curves for pathology subgroups: (a) coronary surgery; (b) valve surgery, (c) mixed surgery; (d) aortic surgery; (e) other major cardiac surgery. P is the probability for z ≥ zi [2]. P < 0.05 is considered significant.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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