Trends in Basal cell carcinoma incidence rates: a 37-year Dutch observational study

Abstract

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence rates are increasing. From 1973 to 2009, data on all first histologically confirmed BCCs were gained from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry to estimate trends in patient-based BCC incidence rates by sex, age group, and site in the southeast Netherlands. Trends in European age-standardized rates and age- and site-specific incidence rates were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Between 1973 and 2009, the European standardized rate quadrupled from 40 to 165 per 100,000 person-years for men and from 34 to 157 for women, significantly increasing since 1973 in both sexes, but accelerating from 2002 until 2009 with an EAPC of 6.8% (95% confidence interval (CI), 5.3-8.3) for men and 7.9% (95% CI, 6.2-9.7) for women. Women below the age of 40 years exhibited a constant linear increase of 6.3% since 1973. The head and neck region was most often affected in both sexes, but the steepest increase was seen for the trunk (EAPC men 13%, women 15%). In the absence of reliable tumor-based rates, these alarming patient-based rates are probably an interesting indicator for the impact of more intensive UV exposure in a prosperous European population.