Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2013 Apr;34(14):1068-74.
doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehs458. Epub 2013 Jan 9.

Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden

Kok Wai Giang  1 , Lena Björck, Masuma Novak, Georgios Lappas, Lars Wilhelmsen, Kjell Torén, Annika Rosengren
Affiliations

Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden

Kok Wai Giang et al. Eur Heart J. 2013 Apr.

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to examine the short-term and long-term cumulative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately based on age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total serum cholesterol.

Methods and results: The Primary Prevention Study comprising 7174 men aged between 47 and 55 free from a previous history of CHD, stroke, and diabetes at baseline examination (1970-73) was followed up for 35 years. To estimate the cumulative effect of CHD and stroke, all participants were stratified into one of five risk groups, defined by their number of risk factors. The estimated 10-year risk for high-risk individuals when adjusted for age and competing risk was 18.1% for CHD and 3.2% for stroke which increased to 47.8 and 19.6%, respectively, after 35 years. The estimates based on risk factors performed well throughout the period for CHD but less well for stroke.

Conclusion: The prediction of traditional risk factors (systolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking status) on short-term risk (0-10 years) and long-term risk (0-35 years) of CHD of stroke differs substantially. This indicates that the cumulative risk in middle-aged men based on these traditional risk factors can effectively be used to predict CHD but not stroke to the same extent.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cumulative incidence curves adjusted for competing risk of death by different risk groups for coronary heart disease and stroke, respectively. The 10-year cumulative risk for (A) coronary heart disease, (B) stroke and the 35-year cumulative risk for (C) coronary heart disease, and (D) stroke.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Strong K, Mathers C, Bonita R. Preventing stroke: saving lives around the world. Lancet Neurol. 2007;6:182–187. doi:10.1016/S1474-4422(07)70031-5. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Hobbs FD, Jukema JW, Da Silva PM, McCormack T, Catapano AL. Barriers to cardiovascular disease risk scoring and primary prevention in Europe. QJM. 2010;103:727–739. doi:10.1093/qjmed/hcq122. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Conroy RM, Pyorala K, Fitzgerald AP, Sans S, Menotti A, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, Ducimetiere P, Jousilahti P, Keil U, Njolstad I, Oganov RG, Thomsen T, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Tverdal A, Wedel H, Whincup P, Wilhelmsen L, Graham IM. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. Eur Heart J. 2003;24:987–1003. doi:10.1016/S0195-668X(03)00114-3. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Anderson KM, Wilson PW, Odell PM, Kannel WB. An updated coronary risk profile. A statement for health professionals. Circulation. 1991;83:356–362. - PubMed
    1. D'Agostino RB, Wolf PA, Belanger AJ, Kannel WB. Stroke risk profile: adjustment for antihypertensive medication. The Framingham Study. Stroke. 1994;25:40–43. doi:10.1161/01.STR.25.1.40. - DOI - PubMed

Publication types