Similar decline in mortality rate of older persons with and without type 2 diabetes between 1993 and 2004 the Icelandic population-based Reykjavik and AGES-Reykjavik cohort studies

Abstract

Background: A decline in mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality has led to increased life expectancy in the Western world in recent decades. At the same time, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, a disease associated with a twofold excess risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, has been increasing. The objective of this study was to estimate the secular trend of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates in two population-based cohorts of older persons, with and without type 2 diabetes, examined 11 years apart.

Methods: 1506 participants (42% men) from the population-based Reykjavik Study, examined during 1991-1996 (median 1993), mean age 75.0 years, and 4814 participants (43% men) from the AGES-Reykjavik Study, examined during 2002-2006 (median 2004), mean age 77.2 years, age range in both cohorts 70-87 years. The main outcome measures were age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease and all causes, over two consecutive 5.7- and 5.3-year follow-up periods.

Results: A 32% decline in cardiovascular mortality rate and a 19% decline in all-cause mortality rate were observed between 1993 and 2004. The decline was greater in those with type 2 diabetes, as illustrated by the decline in the adjusted hazard ratio of cardiovascular mortality in individuals with diabetes compared to those without diabetes, from 1.88 (95% CI 1.24-2.85) in 1993 to 1.46 (95% CI 1.11-1.91) in 2004. We also observed a concurrent decrease in major cardiovascular risk factors in both those with and without diabetes. A higher proportion of persons with diabetes received glucose-lowering, hypertensive and lipid-lowering medication in 2004.

Conclusions: A decline in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates was observed in older persons during the period 1993-2004, in both those with and without type 2 diabetes. This decline may be partly explained by improvements in cardiovascular risk factors and medical treatment over the period studied. However, type 2 diabetes still persists as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular mortality.

Figure 1

A) Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rate and B) all-cause mortality rate per 1000 person years for older individuals with (T2D Yes) and without type 2 diabetes (T2D No). Rates were adjusted to age 75, sex and the mean levels of cardiovascular risk factors (total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, BMI, triglycerides and smoking history), and hypertensive and statin medication within each cohort. In the Reykjavik Study (1993) the median follow-up period was 5.7 years and in the AGES-Reykjavik Study (2004) 5.3 years. The vertical lines represent the mortality rate for the AGES-Reykjavik cohort (N = 4814). The horizontal lines show 95% confidence intervals.