50-year trends in smoking-related mortality in the United States

Abstract

Background: The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear.

Methods: We measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up.

Results: For women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates.

Conclusions: The risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.

Figure 1. Changes in Rates of Death from Lung Cancer and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) over Time among Current Female and Male Smokers in the Three Time Periods

Data were obtained from the first Cancer Prevention Study (CPS I) for the period from 1959 to 1965, from the second Cancer Prevention Study (CPS II) for the period from 1982 to 1988, and from five contemporary cohort studies for the period from 2000 to 2010.

Figure 2. Relative Risks of Lung Cancer and COPD among Current Smokers, According to Number of Cigarettes Smoked per Day, and among Former Smokers, According to Age at the Time of Quitting, in the Contemporary Cohorts

Pooled Cox proportional-hazards, multivariable models were used to determine relative risks for current or former smokers who participated in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition cohort, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, the Nurses’ Health Study, the National Institutes of Health–American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study (NIH–AARP), and the Women’s Health Initiative study, 2000–2010. All models were controlled for education level, race, and cohort and were stratified according to the participant’s age in 2000. Data were not available for age at the time of quitting for former smokers in the NIH–AARP study. Former smokers who had quit more than 2 years before the survey date were included. P<0.001 for the test for trend. Vertical lines indicate 95% confidence intervals.