Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Comparative Study
. 2013 Jul;20(7):1107-9.
doi: 10.1111/ene.12016. Epub 2012 Dec 7.

A web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis

I Galea  1 , C Lederer, A Neuhaus, P A Muraro, A Scalfari, N Koch-Henriksen, C Heesen, S Koepke, P Stellmann, H Albrecht, A Winkelmann, F Weber, E Bahn, M Hauser, G Edan, G Ebers, M Daumer
Affiliations
Comparative Study

A web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis

I Galea et al. Eur J Neurol. 2013 Jul.

Abstract

Background and purpose: The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort.

Methods: We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS.

Results: We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability.

Conclusions: Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(a) Inter-rater variability. (b) Intra-rater variability. Two neurologists did not complete all the questions and hence had no duplicate patients.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Integrated Brier Scores.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

    1. Degenhardt A, Ramagopalan SV, Scalfari A, Ebers GC. Clinical prognostic factors in multiple sclerosis: a natural history review. Nat Rev Neurol. 2009;5:672–682. - PubMed
    1. Boeije HR, Janssens AC. ‘It might happen or it might not’: how patients with multiple sclerosis explain their perception of prognostic risk. Soc Sci Med. 2004;59:861–868. - PubMed
    1. Bergamaschi R, Quaglini S, Trojano M, et al. Early prediction of the long term evolution of multiple sclerosis: the Bayesian Risk Estimate for Multiple Sclerosis (BREMS) score. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2007;78:757–759. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Daumer M, Neuhaus A, Lederer C, Scholz M, Wolinsky JS, Heiderhoff M. Prognosis of the individual course of disease – steps in developing a decision support tool for multiple sclerosis. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2007;7:11. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Heesen C, Kopke S, Fischer K, et al. Perception of evidence-based patient information on prognostic risk in multiple sclerosis. Mult Scler. 2009;15:S149.

Publication types

MeSH terms