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. 2013:3:1300.
doi: 10.1038/srep01300.

Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa

J I Blanford  1 , S Blanford, R G Crane, M E Mann, K P Paaijmans, K V Schreiber, M B Thomas
Affiliations

Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa

J I Blanford et al. Sci Rep. 2013.

Abstract

Temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission. Recent work has shown that mosquito and parasite biology are influenced not only by average temperature, but also by the extent of the daily temperature variation. Here we examine how parasite development within the mosquito (Extrinsic Incubation Period) is expected to vary over time and space depending on the diurnal temperature range and baseline mean temperature in Kenya and across Africa. Our results show that under cool conditions, the typical approach of using mean monthly temperatures alone to characterize the transmission environment will underestimate parasite development. In contrast, under warmer conditions, the use of mean temperatures will overestimate development. Qualitatively similar patterns hold using both outdoor and indoor temperatures. These findings have important implications for defining malaria risk. Furthermore, understanding the influence of daily temperature dynamics could provide new insights into ectotherm ecology both now and in response to future climate change.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Predicted thermal performance of malaria parasite development within the mosquito in relation to the temperatures experienced at each of four study locations in Kenya, Africa.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Estimated mean (±95% C.I.) Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) (days) of P. falciparum for four locations in Kenya, calculated using monthly, daily or hourly temperatures.
Details of temperature time series given in Table 1.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Comparison of mean (±95% C.I.) Extrinsic Incubation Periods (EIP) for four sites in Kenya calculated using a diurnal temperature cycle model based on monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (‘Monthly’ EIPs - black symbols) or the hourly temperatures for the equivalent months (Hourly EIPs - yellow symbols).
Figure 4
Figure 4. Maps illustrating number of days for malaria to become transmittable (EIP) across Kenya.
Map A illustrates the number of days taken to complete EIP using mean monthly temperatures. Map B illustrates the number of days taken to complete EIP using hourly temperatures based on an average diurnal cycle for the month. Map C illustrates the percent change between A and B. Positive values (blue) show when EIP values for B are greater than EIP values for A, and negative values (brown) show when EIP values for B are less than EIP values for A. Hatched areas indicate where sufficient rainfall (> 80 mm) has fallen to support mosquito breeding.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Maps illustrating number of days for malaria to become transmittable across Africa within the defined malaria transmission zone utilizing outdoor temperature.
Maps A, B and C as in Figure 4.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Maps illustrating number of days for malaria to become transmittable across Africa within the defined malaria transmission zone using indoor temperature.
Maps A, B and C as in Figure 4.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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