The development and prediction of athletic performance in freestyle swimming

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics of changes between the performances of elite freestyle swimmers recorded at particular Olympic Games. It also uses a set of chronologically ordered results to predict probable times of swimmers at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. The analysis of past performances of freestyle swimmers and their prediction have revealed a number of interesting tendencies within separately examined results of men and women. Women's results improve more dynamically compared with men's. Moreover, the difference between women's and men's results is smaller, the longer the swimming distance. As both male and female athletes tend to compete more and more vigorously within their groups, the gap between the gold medallist and the last finisher in the final is constantly decreasing, which provides significant evidence that this sport discipline continues to develop.

Keywords: performance; rate of improvement; swimming; world records.

Graph 1

Women’s and men’s performances in the 50 m freestyle during the 6 past Olympic Games and the prediction for London 2012

Graph 2

Women’s and men’s performances in the 100 m freestyle during the past 24 Olympic Games and the prediction for London 2012

Graph 3

Women’s and men’s performances in the 200 m freestyle during the past 11 Olympic Games and the prediction for London 2012

Graph 4

Women’s and men’s performances in the 400 m freestyle during the past 22 Olympic Games and the prediction for London 2012

Graph. 5

Women’s and men’s performances in the 800 m and 1500 m freestyle during the past 23 Olympic Games and the prediction for London 2012