An updated report of the trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan

Abstract

Objective: The analysis of cancer trends in Japan has only been sporadically reported. We present a comprehensive report on the trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan using the most recent population-based data.

Methods: National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2011 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2007 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries of four prefectures (Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukui and Nagasaki). Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine the trends in age-standardized rates of cancer incidence and mortality.

Results: All-cancer mortality decreased from the mid-1990s, with an annual percent change of -1.3% (95% confidence interval: -1.4, -1.3), while all-cancer incidence continually increased from 1985, with an annual percent change of 0.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 0.8). Major cancer sites, particularly the liver, colorectum and lung (males), showed a pattern of increasing incidence and mortality rates until the mid-1990s, stabilizing or decreasing thereafter. Stomach cancer showed a long-term decreasing trend for both incidence and mortality, while female breast cancer showed a continuously increasing trend. The incidence of prostate cancer, particularly at the localized stage, increased rapidly between 2000 and 2003, while that of mortality decreased from 2004. No changes were detected in the incidence or mortality for colorectal, female breast or cervical cancers after the establishment of national screening programs for these cancers.

Conclusions: The analysis of cancer trends in Japan revealed a recent decrease in mortality and a continuous increase in incidence, which are considered to reflect changes in the underlying risk factors such as tobacco smoking and infection, and are partially explained by early detection and improved treatment.