Validation of a prediction rule for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis in patients with recent onset undifferentiated arthritis

Abstract

Objectives. To validate van der Helm-van Mil score (vHvM) and new ACR/EULAR criteria for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA). Patients and Methods. Adult patients with UA (swelling ≥2 joints of less than 6 months duration, without diagnosis, and never treated with disease modifying drugs). Results. Ninety-one patients were included. Mean age: 55.6 years (SD: 17.4), 74% females. Median symptoms duration was 2 months (IR: 1-4 months). Mean van der Helm-van Mil score was 6.9 (SD: 2). After a mean followup of 6.2 months (SD: 6), 40.7% patients fulfilled ACR 1987 RA classification criteria, 28.6% fulfilled other diagnostic criteria, and 31% remained as UA. Receiver operator characteristic curve's (ROC's) area under the curve (AUC) for the vHvM score for diagnosis of RA was 0.83. A cutoff value of 6.94 showed sensitivity of 81% and 79.7% specificity. For the new ACR/EULAR criteria, the ROC AUC was 0.93, and a value equal to or greater than 6 showed 86.5% sensitivity and 87% specificity. Conclusion. van der Helm-van Mil prediction score and the new ACR/EULAR criteria proved to be valuable for the diagnosis of RA in patients with early UA.

Figure 1

Comparison of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for new ACR/EULAR criteria, van der Helm-van Mil prediction score, and anti-CCP antibodies for prediction of development of RA.

Figure 2

Comparison of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the new ACR/EULAR criteria, van der Helm-van Mil prediction score, and anti-CCP for prescription of DMARDs.