Neuroprediction of future rearrest

Abstract

Identification of factors that predict recurrent antisocial behavior is integral to the social sciences, criminal justice procedures, and the effective treatment of high-risk individuals. Here we show that error-related brain activity elicited during performance of an inhibitory task prospectively predicted subsequent rearrest among adult offenders within 4 y of release (N = 96). The odds that an offender with relatively low anterior cingulate activity would be rearrested were approximately double that of an offender with high activity in this region, holding constant other observed risk factors. These results suggest a potential neurocognitive biomarker for persistent antisocial behavior.

Fig. 1.

Cox survival function showing proportional rearrest survival rates of high (solid green) vs. low (dashed red) ACC response groups for any crime over a 4-y period. Results of this median split analysis were equivalent to that of the parametric model: bootstrapped B = 0.96; SE = 0.40; P < 0.01; 95% CI, 0.29–1.84. The mean survival times to rearrest for the low and high ACC activity groups were 25.27 (2.80) mo and 32.42 (2.73) mo, respectively. The overall probabilities of rearrest were 60% for the low ACC group and 46% for the high ACC group.

Fig. 2.

(A) A priori seed region (red) for BOLD response to commission errors vs. correct hits in anterior cingulate from a GNG task with an independent sample of 102 healthy adult nonoffenders; peak voxel x = −3, y = 24, z = 33; radius = 14 mm sphere; t(94) = 13.38, P < 0.0001, FWE. A priori control region (blue) embodying anterior portion of the medial prefrontal cortex (peak voxel: 0, 51, −6; radius = 14 mm sphere). (B) Mean hemodynamic response change in offender sample (n = 96) during commission errors vs. correct hits from sagittal (Upper Left), coronal (Right), and axial (Lower Left) orientations. Peak activation located at x = 3, y = 24, z = 33 within the ACC ROI (P < 0.00001, FWE).