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. 2013 Oct 1;132(3):479-85.
doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2013.03.008. Epub 2013 Apr 6.

Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

Olaya García-Rodríguez  1 , Roberto Secades-Villa, Ludwing Flórez-Salamanca, Mayumi Okuda, Shang-Min Liu, Carlos Blanco
Affiliations

Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

Olaya García-Rodríguez et al. Drug Alcohol Depend. .

Abstract

Background: The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse.

Methods: Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1.

Results: The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses.

Conclusions: The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs.

Keywords: NESARC; National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions; Probability; Relapse; Smoking; Tobacco.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest

All the authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Relapse rate in Wave 2 among individuals with less than one year of abstinence in Wave 1
Figure 2
Figure 2
Relapse rate in Wave 2 among individuals with more than one year of abstinence Wave 1
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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