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. 2013 Mar;16(1):97-103.
doi: 10.4048/jbc.2013.16.1.97. Epub 2013 Mar 31.

Validation of a Web-Based Tool to Predict the Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence (IBTR! 2.0) after Breast-Conserving Therapy for Korean Patients

Seung Pil Jung  1 , Sung Mo Hur, Se Kyung Lee, Sangmin Kim, Min-Young Choi, Soo Youn Bae, Jiyoung Kim, Min Kuk Kim, Won Ho Kil, Jun-Ho Choe, Jung-Han Kim, Jee Soo Kim, Seok Jin Nam, Jeoung Won Bae, Jeong Eon Lee
Affiliations

Validation of a Web-Based Tool to Predict the Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence (IBTR! 2.0) after Breast-Conserving Therapy for Korean Patients

Seung Pil Jung et al. J Breast Cancer. 2013 Mar.

Erratum in

Abstract

Purpose: IBTR! 2.0 is a web-based nomogram that predicts the 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) rate after breast-conserving therapy. We validated this nomogram in Korean patients.

Methods: The nomogram was tested for 520 Korean patients, who underwent breast-conserving surgery followed by radiation therapy. Predicted and observed 10-year outcomes were compared for the entire cohort and for each group, predefined by nomogram-predicted risks: group 1, <3%; group 2, 3% to 5%; group 3, 5% to 10%; group 4, >10%.

Results: In overall patients, the overall 10 year predicted and observed estimates of IBTR were 5.22% and 5.70% (p=0.68). In group 1, (n=124), the predicted and observed estimates were 2.25% and 1.80% (p=0.73), in group 2 (n=177), 3.95% and 3.90% (p=0.97), in group 3 (n=181), 7.14% and 8.80% (p=0.42), and in group 4 (n=38), 11.66% and 14.90% (p=0.73), respectively.

Conclusion: In a previous validation of this nomogram based on American patients, nomogram-predicted IBTR rates were overestimated in the high-risk subgroup. However, our results based on Korean patients showed that the observed IBTR was higher than the predicted estimates in groups 3 and 4. This difference may arise from ethnic differences, as well as from the methods used to detect IBTR and the healthcare environment. IBTR! 2.0 may be considered as an acceptable nomogram in Korean patients with low- to moderate-risk of in-breast recurrence. Before widespread use of this nomogram, the IBTR! 2.0 needs a larger validation study and continuous modification.

Keywords: Breast neoplasms; Nomograms; Radiotherapy; Recurrence; Validation studies.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Observed ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) estimates using the Kaplan-Meier method in four predefined groups. (A) Observed IBTR estimates in entire cohort. (B) Observed IBTR estimates in four risk groups.
Figure 2
Figure 2
A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Area under the ROC (AUC) is 0.670 (95% confidence interval, 0.569-0.781). TP=true positive; FP=false positive.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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