Receiver operating characteristic analysis of HLA, CTLA4, and insulin genotypes for type 1 diabetes

Abstract

Objective: This study assessed the ability to distinguish between type 1 diabetes-affected individuals and their unaffected relatives using HLA and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes.

Research design and methods: Eight models, ranging from only the high-risk DR3/DR4 genotype to all significantly associated HLA genotypes and two SNPs mapping to the cytotoxic T-cell-associated antigen-4 gene (CTLA4) and insulin (INS) genes, were fitted to high-resolution class I and class II HLA genotyping data for patients from the Type 1 Diabetes Genetics Consortium collection. Pairs of affected individuals and their unaffected siblings were divided into a "discovery" (n = 1,015 pairs) and a "validation" set (n = 318 pairs). The discriminating performance of various combinations of genetic information was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results: The use of only the presence or absence of the high-risk DR3/DR4 genotype achieved very modest discriminating ability, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.62 in the discovery set and 0.59 in the validation set. The full model-which included HLA information from the class II loci DPB1, DRB1, and DQB1; selected alleles from HLA class I loci A and B; and SNPs from the CTLA4 and INS genes-increased the AUC to 0.74 in the discovery set and to 0.71 in the validation set. A cost-effective alternative is proposed, using genotype information equivalent to typing four SNPs (DR3, DR4-DQB1*03:02, CTLA-4, and INS), which achieved an AUC of 0.72 in the discovery set and 0.69 in the validation set.

Conclusions: Genotyping data sufficient to tag DR3, DR4-DQB1*03:02, CTLA4, and INS were shown to distinguish between subjects with type 1 diabetes and their unaffected siblings adequately to achieve clinically utility to identify children in multiplex families to be considered for early intervention.