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. 2013 May 30;8(5):e62477.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062477. Print 2013.

Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk

Gregory D Webster  1 , Duzgun Agdas, Forrest J Masters, Corey L Cook, Amanda N Gesselman
Affiliations

Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk

Gregory D Webster et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths.

Methods: Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m) ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s) experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt.

Results: Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms.

Conclusions: These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Multilevel moderated mediation model.
Perceived water speed (partially) mediates the direct relationships between (a) actual water speed perception and risk (b) water depth and risk (level 1). The first relationship is moderated by prior storm and rip current experience (level 2).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Spaghetti plot: Water speed: 0.45 m.
Multilevel modeling results for perceived water speed as a function of water depth at 0.45 m and actual water speed (0.4 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.2 m/s). Thin grey lines represent individual predicted scores for 76 participants. The thick black line represents the average person. The thin black line represents a one-to-one relationship.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Spaghetti plot: Water speed: 0.90 m.
Multilevel modeling results for perceived water speed as a function of water depth at 0.90 m and actual water speed (0.4 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.2 m/s). Thin grey lines represent individual predicted scores for 76 participants. The thick black line represents the average person. The thin black line represents a one-to-one relationship.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Perception of water speed by actual water speed and depth.
Multilevel modeling results for perceived water speed as a function of water depth (0.45 [Grey] vs. 0.90 [Black] m) and actual water speed (0.4 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.2 m/s). The thin black line represents a one-to-one relationship.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Moderation by rip current experience.
Multilevel modeling results for perceived water speed as a function of water depth (0.45 [Grey] vs. 0.90 [Black] m), actual water speed (0.4 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.2 m/s), and prior rip current experience (yes vs. no). The thin black line represents a one-to-one relationship.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Moderation by storms experienced.
Multilevel modeling results for perceived water speed as a function of water depth (0.45 [Grey] vs. 0.90 [Black] m), actual water speed (0.4 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.2 m/s), and number of storms experienced (0 vs. 10 or more). The thin black line represents a one-to-one relationship.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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