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. 2013:3:2013.
doi: 10.1038/srep02013.

Sea surface temperature of the mid-Piacenzian ocean: a data-model comparison

Harry J Dowsett  1 , Kevin M Foley, Danielle K Stoll, Mark A Chandler, Linda E Sohl, Mats Bentsen, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, Fran J Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Camille Contoux, Aisling M Dolan, Alan M Haywood, Jeff A Jonas, Anne Jost, Youichi Kamae, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J Lunt, Kerim H Nisancioglu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Gilles Ramstein, Christina R Riesselman, Marci M Robinson, Nan A Rosenbloom, Ulrich Salzmann, Christian Stepanek, Stephanie L Strother, Hiroaki Ueda, Qing Yan, Zhongshi Zhang
Affiliations

Sea surface temperature of the mid-Piacenzian ocean: a data-model comparison

Harry J Dowsett et al. Sci Rep. 2013.

Abstract

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21(st) century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Model sea surface temperature anomaly (ΔSST), calculated by subtracting preindustrial from Pliocene sea surface temperature, as simulated by each of the eight PlioMIP models.
(a) CCSM4, (b) COSMOS, (c) GISS-E2-R, (d) HadCM3, (e) IPSL CM5A, (f) MIROC4m, (g) MRI-CGCM2.3, (h) NorESM. Maps created using Panoply v.3.1.3 written by Robert B. Schmunk.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Map showing distribution of PRISM localities, sea surface temperature anomalies (ΔSST), calculated by subtracting modern from Pliocene sea surface temperature, and the λ-confidence placed upon each locality estimate (relative size of circle, where larger circles represent greater confidence).
Map created in iMap v.3.5 using World Vector Shoreline (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Date Retrieved 4/17/2011, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/shorelines/shorelines.html).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Scatter plot of multi-model-mean anomalies (squares) and PRISM3 data anomalies (large blue circles) by latitude.
Vertical bars on data anomalies represent the variability of warm climate phase within the time-slab at each locality. Small colored circles represent individual model anomalies and show the spread of model estimates about the multi-model-mean. While not directly comparable in terms of the development of the means nor the meaning of variability, this plot provides a first order comparison of the anomalies. Encircled areas are (a) PRISM low latitude sites outside of upwelling areas; (b) North Atlantic coastal sequences and Mediterranean sites; (c) large anomaly PRISM sites from the northern hemisphere. Numbers identify Ocean Drilling Program sites discussed in the text.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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