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Meta-Analysis
. 2013 Jun 17:346:f3703.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.f3703.

The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression

Rosemary Green  1 , Laura Cornelsen, Alan D Dangour, Rachel Turner, Bhavani Shankar, Mario Mazzocchi, Richard D Smith
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression

Rosemary Green et al. BMJ. .

Abstract

Objective: To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels.

Design: Systematic review with meta-regression.

Data sources: Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched reference lists, and contact with authors.

Study selection: We included cross sectional, cohort, experimental, and quasi-experimental studies with English abstracts. Eligible studies used nationally representative data from 1990 onwards derived from national aggregate data sources, household surveys, or supermarket and home scanners.

Data analysis: The primary outcome extracted from relevant papers was the quantification of the demand for foods in response to changes in food price (own price food elasticities). Descriptive and study design variables were extracted for use as covariates in analysis. We conducted meta-regressions to assess the effect of income levels between and within countries on the strength of the relation between food price and demand, and predicted price elasticities adjusted for differences across studies.

Results: 136 studies reporting 3495 own price food elasticities from 162 different countries were identified. Our models predict that increases in the price of all foods result in greater reductions in food consumption in poor countries: in low and high income countries, respectively, a 1% increase in the price of cereals results in reductions in consumption of 0.61% (95% confidence interval 0.56% to 0.66%) and 0.43% (0.36% to 0.48%), and a 1% increase in the price of meat results in reductions in consumption of 0.78% (0.73% to 0.83%) and 0.60% (0.54% to 0.66%). Within all countries, our models predict that poorer households will be the most adversely affected by increases in food prices.

Conclusions: Changes in global food prices will have a greater effect on food consumption in lower income countries and in poorer households within countries. This has important implications for national responses to increases in food prices and for the definition of policies designed to reduce the global burden of undernutrition.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.

Figures

None
Flow diagram for selection of included studies
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Davis M. Late Victorian holocausts: El Nino famines and the making of the third world. Verso, 2000.
    1. Compton J, Wiggins S, Keats S. Impact of the global food crisis on the poor: what is the evidence? Overseas Development Institute and UK Department for International Development, 2012.
    1. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization. OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2012-2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2012-en. - DOI
    1. Food and Agriculture Organization. Number of hungry people rises to 963 million. 2008. www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/8836/.
    1. Mazzocchi M, Shankar B, Traill WB. The development of global diets since ICN 1992: influences of agri-food sector trends and policies. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Working Paper No 34. FAO, 2012.

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