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. 2012;16(1):38-43.
doi: 10.5114/wo.2012.27335. Epub 2012 Feb 29.

Predictions of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2018

Dariusz Godlewski  1 , Piotr Wojtyś, Andrzej Antczak
Affiliations

Predictions of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2018

Dariusz Godlewski et al. Contemp Oncol (Pozn). 2012.

Abstract

Aim of the study: The cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2008 was one of the highest in the country and was higher than in Poland by 21% in men and by 14% in women. We can quantify the future burden of cancer from two different perspectives: the number of new cancer cases due to population change and new cases due to risk change. Making predictions of number of new cancer cases in Wielkopolska in 2018.

Material and methods: These projections of number of cancer cases, age specific rates and age-standardized rates for 2018 (all cancers and the most frequent cancers for men and women) has been based on the historical trends of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 1999-2008 and demographical prognosis of Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba.

Results: There will be over 8000 new cancer cases in men in Wielkopolska in 2018 and over 7000 in women. Compare to the period 2004-2008 the number of cancer cases will increase by 45% for men and by nearly 30% for women. About 2/3 of the increase in Wielkopolska is predicted to be connected with demography change, 1/3 with risk change.

Conclusions: The predicted increase of number of cancer cases in Wielkopolska in 2018 will be the result of: changes in the population (bigger impact of the older age groups), an influence of the risk factors (mainly smoking) and a participation in the screening programs.

Keywords: cancer; demography; incidence; predictions; risk.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The structure of incidence in Wielkopolska, men, year 2008. Number of new cancer cases among males: 6649
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The structure of incidence in Wielkopolska, women, year 2008. Number of new cancer cases among females: 6294
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Incidence trends for the most frequent cancers among men in Wielkopolska. Standardized rate per 100 000
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Incidence trends for the most frequent cancers among women in Wielkopolska. Standardized rate per 100 000
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Demographic prognosis for Wielkopolska
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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