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. 2014 Mar;142(3):608-15.
doi: 10.1017/S095026881300157X. Epub 2013 Jul 2.

The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010

A M Grjibovski  1 , A Kosbayeva  2 , B Menne  3
Affiliations

The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010

A M Grjibovski et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2014 Mar.

Abstract

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2-8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI -2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1-1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
[colour online]. Map of Kazakhstan (source: http://geology.com/world/kazakhstan-satellite-image.shtml).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
[colour online]. Number of cases of salmonellosis per month in (a) Astana, (b) Almaty, (c) North Kazakhstan and (d) South Kazakhstan, 2000–2010.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
[colour online]. Seasonal pattern of mean monthly temperature and mean monthly counts of salmonellosis in (a) Astana, (b) Almaty, (c) North Kazakhstan and (d) South Kazakhstan, averaged for each month for the period 2000–2010.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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