Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2013 Jun 24;8(6):e66403.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066403. Print 2013.

Temperature changes between neighboring days and mortality in summer: a distributed lag non-linear time series analysis

Hualiang Lin  1 , Yonghui Zhang, Yanjun Xu, Xiaojun Xu, Tao Liu, Yuan Luo, Jianpeng Xiao, Wei Wu, Wenjun Ma
Affiliations

Temperature changes between neighboring days and mortality in summer: a distributed lag non-linear time series analysis

Hualiang Lin et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Many studies have shown that high temperatures or heat waves were associated with mortality and morbidity. However, few studies have examined whether temperature changes between neighboring days have any significant impact on human health.

Method: A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to investigate the effect of temperature changes on mortality in summer during 2006-2010 in two subtropical Chinese cities. The temperature change was defined as the difference of the current day's and the previous day's mean temperature.

Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature changes between neighboring days in summer on mortality in both cities. Temperature increase was associated with increased mortality from non-accidental diseases and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in both cities. Significant association between temperature changes and respiratory mortality was only found in Guangzhou.

Conclusion: This study suggests that temperature changes between neighboring days might be an alternative temperature indicator for studying temperature-mortality relationship.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Location of the study area in Guangdong Province, China.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Three-D plot of RR along temperature change and lags for mortalities from non-accidental diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with reference at 0°C temperature change.
Figure 3
Figure 3. The cumulative effect of temperature changes over past 5 days on all cause mortality.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P (2012) The effect of high temperatures on cause-specific mortality in England and Wales. Occupational and Environmental Medicine 69: 56–61. - PubMed
    1. Goldberg MS, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Valois MF (2011) The short-term influence of temperature on daily mortality in the temperate climate of Montreal, Canada. Environmental Research 111: 853–860. - PubMed
    1. Yu W, Hu W, Mengersen K, Guo Y, Pan X, et al. (2011) Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia. Heart 97: 1089–1093. - PubMed
    1. Xie H, Yao Z, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Xu X, et al. (2013) Short-Term Effects of the 2008 Cold Spell on Mortality in Three Subtropical Cities in Guangdong Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 121: 210–216. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Lin H, Yang L, Liu Q, Wang T, Hossain SR, et al. (2012) Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China. Int J Public Health 57: 289–296. - PubMed

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources