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. 2013 Jun 21:5:ecurrents.outbreaks.bb1e879a23137022ea79a8c508b030bc.
doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.bb1e879a23137022ea79a8c508b030bc.

Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics

Elaine Nsoesie  1 , Madhav Mararthe, John Brownstein
Affiliations

Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics

Elaine Nsoesie et al. PLoS Curr. .

Abstract

We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.

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Figures

Peak forecast for the 2007-2008 influenza season using GFT for Seattle, WA.
Peak forecast for the 2007-2008 influenza season using GFT for Seattle, WA.
Actual peak is observed on week 20. The black curve is the GFT data, the red line is the mean predicted curve and the grey curves show fifty replicates of the stochastic process.
Predicted peak by week of forecast for Seattle, WA.
Predicted peak by week of forecast for Seattle, WA.
(A) 95% CI around the mean and (B) standard deviations around the mean. The true peak is observed on week 20.
Peak forecast for the 2012-2013 influenza season using GFT for Seattle, WA.
Peak forecast for the 2012-2013 influenza season using GFT for Seattle, WA.
Actual peak is observed on week 15. The black curve is the GFT data, the red line is the mean predicted curve and the grey curves show fifty replicates of the stochastic process.
Predicted peak by week of forecast for Seattle, WA.
Predicted peak by week of forecast for Seattle, WA.
(A) 95% CI around the mean and (B) standard deviations around the mean. The true peak is observed on week 15.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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