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. 2013 Aug 20;110(34):13961-4.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307243110. Epub 2013 Aug 5.

Search strategy has influenced the discovery rate of human viruses

Ronald Rosenberg  1 , Michael A Johansson, Ann M Powers, Barry R Miller
Affiliations

Search strategy has influenced the discovery rate of human viruses

Ronald Rosenberg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

A widely held concern is that the pace of infectious disease emergence has been increasing. We have analyzed the rate of discovery of pathogenic viruses, the preeminent source of newly discovered causes of human disease, from 1897 through 2010. The rate was highest during 1950-1969, after which it moderated. This general picture masks two distinct trends: for arthropod-borne viruses, which comprised 39% of pathogenic viruses, the discovery rate peaked at three per year during 1960-1969, but subsequently fell nearly to zero by 1980; however, the rate of discovery of nonarboviruses remained stable at about two per year from 1950 through 2010. The period of highest arbovirus discovery coincided with a comprehensive program supported by The Rockefeller Foundation of isolating viruses from humans, animals, and arthropod vectors at field stations in Latin America, Africa, and India. The productivity of this strategy illustrates the importance of location, approach, long-term commitment, and sponsorship in the discovery of emerging pathogens.

Keywords: emerging diseases; zoonoses.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
The pace of human virus discovery 1897–2010. (A) The cumulative discoveries of human-pathogenic viruses in any organism (black) and their incrimination as a cause of human disease (green). (B) The cumulative discoveries of human-pathogenic arboviruses (red), and nonarboviruses (blue). (C) Yearly arboviruses and nonarboviruses discovered (red and blue points, respectively) with moving averages (lines) smoothed with a 10-y bandwidth Gaussian kernel and 95% confidence bands (shaded areas) determined by bootstrapping (10).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Geographical distribution, by country, of discoveries of human-pathogenic arboviruses and nonarboviruses, 1897–2010. Black diamonds indicate countries with Rockefeller Foundation laboratories or field stations. Codiscoveries are represented in each country.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
The cumulative discoveries of arboviruses by staff of The Rockefeller Foundation and by all other institutions.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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