Future population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki

Abstract

The Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Survivor Database, which was established in 1978 for elucidating the long-term health effects of the atomic bombing, has registered since 1970 about 120,000 atomic bomb survivors with a history of residence in Nagasaki city. Since the number of atomic bomb survivors has steadily been decreasing, prediction of future population is important for planning future epidemiologic studies, and we tried to predict the population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki city from 2008 to 2030. In addition, we evaluated our estimated population comparing with the actual number from 2008 to 2011.