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. 2013 Sep;89(3):564-9.
doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.12-0771. Epub 2013 Aug 12.

Climate and leishmaniasis in French Guiana

Amaury Roger  1 , Mathieu Nacher, Matthieu Hanf, Anne Sophie Drogoul, Antoine Adenis, Celia Basurko, Julie Dufour, Dominique Sainte Marie, Denis Blanchet, Stephane Simon, Bernard Carme, Pierre Couppié
Affiliations

Climate and leishmaniasis in French Guiana

Amaury Roger et al. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Sep.

Abstract

To study the link between climatic variables and the incidence of leishmaniasis a study was conducted in Cayenne, French Guiana. Patients infected between January 1994 and December 2010. Meteorological data were studied in relation to the incidence of leishmaniasis using an ARIMA model. In the final model, the infections were negatively correlated with rainfall (with a 2-month lag) and with the number of days with rainfall > 50 mm (lags of 4 and 7 months). The variables that were positively correlated were temperature and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index with lags of 8 and 4 months, respectively. Significantly greater correlations were observed in March for rainfall and in November for the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index. Climate thus seems to be a non-negligible explanatory variable for the fluctuations of leishmaniasis. A decrease in rainfall is linked to increased cases 2 months later. This easily perceptible point could lead to an interesting prevention message.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Monthly correlations between leishmaniasis cases and rainfall 2 months earlier.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Correlation between annual leishmaniasis cases and annual rainfall.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Monthly correlations of residuals: this analysis allowed determining whether correlations observed in the multivariate analysis were accentuated at certain periods of the year. Spearman's rank correlation, alpha = 5%.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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