Mechanistic and statistical models of total Vibrio abundance in the Neuse River Estuary

Abstract

Bacteria in the genus Vibrio are ubiquitous to estuarine waters worldwide and are often the dominant genus recovered from these environments. This genus contains several potentially pathogenic species, including Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio alginolyticus. These bacteria have short generation times, as low as 20-30 min, and can thus respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions. A five-parameter mechanistic model was generated based on environmental processes including hydrodynamics, growth, and death rates of Vibrio bacteria to predict total Vibrio abundance in the Neuse River Estuary of eastern North Carolina. Additionally an improved statistical model was developed using the easily monitored parameters of temperature and salinity. This updated model includes data that covers more than eight years of constant bacterial monitoring, and incorporates extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, and floods. These models can be used to identify days in which bacterial abundance might coincide with increased health risks.

Keywords: Forecast; ModMon; Monitoring; Salinity; Temperature.