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. 2013 Aug 27:11:41.
doi: 10.1186/1478-4491-11-41.

Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

Tomoki Ishikawa  1 , Hisateru Ohba, Yuki Yokooka, Kozo Nakamura, Katsuhiko Ogasawara
Affiliations

Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

Tomoki Ishikawa et al. Hum Resour Health. .

Abstract

Background: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.

Method: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.

Result & conclusion: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Conceptual scheme of the Japanese physician career path.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The system dynamics model methodology used in this study.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Diagram of the system dynamics model for forecasting the number of clinical physicians.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Forecast numbers of all clinical physicians, 2008 to 2030.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Forecast numbers of obstetrics/gynaecology specialists, 2008 to 2030. OB/GYN, obstetrics/gynaecology.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Forecast numbers of all clinical physicians per 1 000 persons.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Forecast sufficiency level, 2008 to 2030.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Sensitivity analysis of the sufficiency level of all clinical physicians and obstetrics/gynaecology specialists, 2008 to 2030. OB/GYN, obstetrics/gynaecology; quo, quota.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Comparison of impact for medical school quota and speciality choice on sufficiency level.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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