Atrial fibrillation, stroke risk, and warfarin therapy revisited: a population-based study

Abstract

Background and purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke. This study aims to update the knowledge about AF and associated stroke risk and benefits of anticoagulation.

Methods: We extracted data from the hospital, specialized outpatient, and primary healthcare and drug registries in a Swedish region with 1.56 million residents. We identified all individuals who had received an AF diagnosis during the previous 5 years; all stroke events during 2010; and patients with AF aged ≥50 years who had received warfarin during 2009.

Results: AF had been diagnosed in 38 446 subjects who were alive at the beginning of 2010 (prevalence of 3.2% in the adult [≥20 years] population); ≈46% received warfarin therapy. In 2010, there were 4565 ischemic stroke events and 861 intracranial hemorrhages. AF had been diagnosed in 38% of ischemic events (≥50% among those aged ≥80 years) and in 23% of intracranial hemorrhages. An AF diagnosis was often lacking in hospital discharge records after stroke events. Warfarin therapy was associated with an odds ratio of 0.50 (confidence interval, 0.43-0.57) for ischemic stroke and, despite an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage, an odds ratio of 0.57 (confidence interval, 0.50-0.64) for the overall risk for stroke.

Conclusions: AF is more common than present guidelines suggest. The attributable risk of AF for ischemic stroke increases with age and is close to that of hypertension in individuals aged ≥80 years. Because a majority of patients with AF with increased risk for stroke had not received anticoagulation therapy, there is a large potential for improvement.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation; diabetes mellitus; hypertension; intracranial hemorrhage; risk assessment; stroke; thromboembolism.