Causes of death and influencing factors in patients with atrial fibrillation: a competing-risk analysis from the randomized evaluation of long-term anticoagulant therapy study

Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation is associated with increased mortality, but the specific causes of death and their predictors have not been described among patients on effective anticoagulant therapy.

Methods and results: The Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy (RE-LY) trial randomized 18 113 patients (age, 71.5 ± 9 years; male, 64%; CHADS2 score, 2.1 ± 1) to receive dabigatran or warfarin. Median follow-up was 2 years, and complete follow-up was achieved in 99.9% of patients. All deaths were categorized by the investigators using prespecified definitions followed by central adjudication. Overall, 1371 deaths occurred (annual mortality rate, 3.84%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.64-4.05). Cardiac deaths (sudden cardiac death and progressive heart failure) accounted for 37.4% of all deaths, whereas stroke- and hemorrhage-related deaths represented 9.8% of the total mortality. An examination of the causes of death according to dabigatran or warfarin showed that dabigatran significantly reduced vascular (embolism and hemorrhage-related) mortality (relative risk, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45-0.88; P=0.007), whereas other causes of death were similar between treatments, including cardiac mortality (relative risk, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.80-1.15; P=0.638). The two strongest independent predictors of cardiac death in this population were heart failure (hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% CI, 2.45-3.73; P<0.0001), and prior myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61-2.62; P<0.0001).

Conclusions: The majority of deaths are not related to stroke in a contemporary anticoagulated atrial fibrillation population. These results emphasize the need to identify interventions beyond effective anticoagulation to further reduce mortality in atrial fibrillation.

Clinical trial registration url: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00262600.

Keywords: death, sudden, cardiac; embolism; heart failure; hemorrhage; mortality; stroke.