Carotid atherosclerosis and incident atrial fibrillation

Abstract

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atherosclerotic vascular disease are closely entangled disorders and often coexist. Whether atherosclerosis predisposes to the development of AF has not been fully elucidated.

Approach and results: This study was performed within the framework of the Bruneck Study, a population-based survey with near-complete participation (932 of 1000), long-term follow-up (1990-2010), and thorough assessment of AF. The carotid arteries served as a window to systemic atherosclerosis and were scanned every 5 years. Pooled logistic regression and multistate proportional hazards models were used to identify risk predictors of incident AF and effects of AF on mortality. During follow-up, 118 new cases of AF were detected (incidence per 1000 person-years of 8.1; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-9.6). Individuals with atherosclerosis were more likely to develop AF than individuals without (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.1; P=0.021). This finding applied to women and men and to both baseline and incident atherosclerosis during follow-up. Subjects with atherosclerosis and AF were significantly more likely to die than those with either condition alone (P=0.0034), and mortality in this group was ≈ 4-fold compared with individuals free of atherosclerosis and AF (hazard ratio, 4.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-6.8; P<0.0001).

Conclusions: We found that subjects with carotid atherosclerosis are at high risk of developing AF.

Keywords: atherosclerosis; atrial fibrillation; epidemiology; population; prognosis.