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. 2013 Sep;7 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):64-71.
doi: 10.1111/irv.12083.

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda

Richard D Smith  1 , Marcus R Keogh-Brown  1
Affiliations

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda

Richard D Smith et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013 Sep.

Abstract

Background: Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.

Objectives: To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

Methods: A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.

Results: Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.

Conclusion: The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.

Keywords: Influenza; South Africa; Thailand; Uganda; macroeconomic modelling.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overall percentage GDP impact by country. Disease only and school closure scenarios equate to 0% vaccine coverage.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Sectoral impact by country. DO_ represents ‘disease only’ scenario, the last two letters represent low, moderate or high CAR and CFR respectively (i.e. MH indicates moderate CAR and high CFR).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Household consumption. DO_ represents ‘disease only’ scenario, the last two letters represent low, moderate or high CAR and CFR respectively (i.e. MH indicates moderate CAR and high CFR).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Import impacts. (DO_ represents ‘disease only’ scenario, the last two letters represent low, moderate or high CAR and CFR respectively (i.e. MH indicates moderate CAR and high CFR).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Export impacts. DO_ represents ‘disease only’ scenario, the last two letters represent low, moderate or high CAR and CFR respectively (i.e. MH indicates moderate CAR and high CFR).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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