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. 2013 Nov;89(5):840-849.
doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0028. Epub 2013 Sep 23.

Mapping malaria transmission intensity in Malawi, 2000-2010

Adam Bennett, Lawrence Kazembe, Don P Mathanga, Damaris Kinyoki, Doreen Ali, Robert W Snow, Abdisalan M Noor

Mapping malaria transmission intensity in Malawi, 2000-2010

Adam Bennett et al. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Nov.

Abstract

Substantial development assistance has been directed towards reducing the high malaria burden in Malawi over the past decade. We assessed changes in transmission over this period of malaria control scale-up by compiling community Plasmodium falciparum rate (PfPR) data during 2000-2011 and used model-based geostatistical methods to predict mean PfPR2-10 in 2000, 2005, and 2010. In addition, we calculated population-adjusted prevalences and populations at risk by district to inform malaria control program priority setting. The national population-adjusted PfPR2-10 was 37% in 2010, and we found no evidence of change over this period of scale-up. The entire population of Malawi is under meso-endemic transmission risk, with those in districts along the shore of Lake Malawi and Shire River Valley under highest risk. The lack of change in prevalence confirms modeling predictions that when compared with lower transmission, prevalence reductions in high transmission settings require greater investment and longer time scales.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Districts map of Malawi showing the distribution of the age-standardized community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR2–10) data (n = 1,057) during 2000–2011.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Maps of the continuous posterior annual mean Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR2–10) prediction 1 × 1 km locations in Malawi in A, 2000; B, 2005; and C, 2010.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Maps of the classified posterior annual mean Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR2–10) prediction 1 × 1 km locations in Malawi in A, 2000; B, 2005; and C, 2010.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Maps of the standard deviation of the posterior annual mean Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR2–10) prediction 1 × 1 km locations in Malawi in A, 2000; B, 2005; and C, 2010.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Map of percent of population by district under highest transmission intensity (predicted Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate [PfPR2–10] 40–50%), Malawi 2010.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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