Evaluation of the plan for surveillance and controlling of the effects of heat waves in Madrid

Abstract

This paper presents evaluation of a plan for surveillance of and controlling the effects of heat-related mortality (PSCEHW), implemented in Madrid in 2004 through a time series analysis conducted with ARIMA modeling. From the public health point of view, prevention plans should be implemented as adaptive measures to heat waves. In 2003, the impact attributable to the heat wave was an increase in mortality per °C of 22.39 %. All heat waves since 2003 have been of lower intensity, and yet, in 2005 there was a heat wave of lower intensity that had a greater impact, i.e. an increase in mortality per °C of 45.71 %. With the methodology used here, we cannot say whether implementation of PSCEHW has resulted in a decrease of mortality attributable to high temperatures in the city of Madrid.