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. 2013 Oct 1:13:442.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2407-13-442.

Preoperative neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio predicts overall survival but does not predict recurrence or cancer-specific survival after curative resection of node-positive colorectal cancer

Lucy Jankova  1 , Owen F Dent, Charles Chan, Pierre Chapuis, Stephen J Clarke
Affiliations

Preoperative neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio predicts overall survival but does not predict recurrence or cancer-specific survival after curative resection of node-positive colorectal cancer

Lucy Jankova et al. BMC Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: The preoperative ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes (NLR) has been proposed as a marker of poor outcome in patients having a resection for colorectal cancer (CRC). This study investigated the association between NLR and overall survival, cancer-specific survival and recurrent cancer in patients who had a potentially curative resection for node-positive CRC.

Methods: Data on 322 patients were drawn from a prospectively recorded registry operated on between 1999 and 2007. Analyses of survival involved the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression and competing risks Cox regression.

Results: Increasing NLR as a continuous variable was independently though weakly associated with diminishing overall survival after adjustment for other prognostic variables (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11, p = 0.013). Receiver operating characteristic analysis to dichotomize NLR as a predictor of overall survival yielded relatively poor sensitivity (55%), specificity (66%) and positive predictive value (56%, CI 47%-64%). Competing risks regression also showed that NLR was not independently associated with recurrence at any site (HR 1.04, CI 0.97-1.11, p = 0.241) or CRC-specific mortality (HR 1.02, CI 0.92-1.12, p = 0.782) but was associated with non-CRC mortality (HR 1.09, CI 1.03-1.15, p = 0.004).

Conclusion: In patients with stage C tumor the weak link between NLR and overall mortality was not specific to CRC but apparently arose because patients with an elevated inflammatory status preoperatively were likely to progress to earlier death but not necessarily because of their cancer.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
ROC curve for the NLR as a predictor of death due to any cause. The optimum threshold of 2.8 is indicated by A, at which point the positive predictive value was 56% (95% CI 47%-64%). B indicates a threshold of 3.8, at which the positive predictive value was 63% (CI 52%-74%). C indicates a threshold at 2.5%, at which point the positive predictive value was 52% (CI 45%-60%).
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