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. 2013:4:2486.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms3486.

Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe

Stephen Shennan  1 , Sean S Downey, Adrian Timpson, Kevan Edinborough, Sue Colledge, Tim Kerig, Katie Manning, Mark G Thomas
Affiliations

Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe

Stephen Shennan et al. Nat Commun. 2013.

Abstract

Following its initial arrival in SE Europe 8,500 years ago agriculture spread throughout the continent, changing food production and consumption patterns and increasing population densities. Here we show that, in contrast to the steady population growth usually assumed, the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations. We demonstrate that summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulation can be used to test the significance of these demographic booms and busts in the context of uncertainty in the radiocarbon date calibration curve and archaeological sampling. We report these results for Central and Northwest Europe between 8,000 and 4,000 cal. BP and investigate the relationship between these patterns and climate. However, we find no evidence to support a relationship. Our results thus suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Map of Central and North Western Europe.
Points indicate archaeological site locations and colours delineate the sub-regions used to estimate demographic patterns.
Figure 2
Figure 2. SCDPD-inferred population density change 10,000–4,000 cal. BP using all radiocarbon dates in the western Europe database.
The fitted null model of exponential population growth is used to calculate the statistical significance of regional (Fig. 3) and combined regional growth deviations (Fig. 4).
Figure 3
Figure 3. SCDPD-inferred population density change 8,000–4,000 cal. BP for each sub-region.
Statistically significant deviations from the null model (see Methods) are indicated in red and blue, and blue arrows indicate the first evidence for agriculture in each region. **P-values smaller than P<0.0051, the 95% confidence level calculated using the Šidák correction (see Methods).
Figure 4
Figure 4. SCDPD-inferred population density change 8,000–4,000 cal. BP for all regions combined.
Statistically significant deviations from the null model of long-term growth (see Methods) are indicated in red and blue.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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