First-episode types in bipolar disorder: predictive associations with later illness

Abstract

Objective: Characteristics of initial illness in bipolar disorder (BD) may predict later morbidity.

Method: We reviewed computerized clinical records and life charts of DSM-IV-TR BD-I or BD-II patients at affiliated mood-disorder centers to ascertain relationships of initial major illnesses to later morbidity and other clinical characteristics.

Results: Adult BD patient-subjects (N=1081; 59.8% BD-I; 58.1% women; 43% ever hospitalized) were followed 15.7±12.8 years after onsets ranking: depression (59%)>mania (13%)>psychosis (8.0%)≥anxiety (7.6%)≥hypomania (6.7%)>mixed states (5.5%). Onset types differed in clinical characteristics and strongly predicted later morbidity. By initial episode types, total time-ill ranked: mania≥hypomania≥mixed-states≥psychosis>depression>anxiety. Depression was most prevalent long-term, overall; its ratio to mania-like illness (D/M, by per cent-time-ill) ranked by onset type: anxiety (4.75)>depression (3.27)>mixed states (1.39)>others (all<1.00). The MDI (mania or hypomania-depression-euthymia interval) course-pattern was most common (34.4%) and associated with psychotic or manic onset; the depression before mania (DMI) pattern (25.0%) most often followed anxiety (38.8%), depression (30.8%), or mixed onsets (13.3%); both were predicted by initial mania depression sequences.

Conclusion: First-lifetime illnesses and cycles predicted later morbidity patterns among BD patients, indicating value of early morbidity for prognosis and long-term planning.

Keywords: bipolar disorder; cycling; first-episodes; long-term morbidity; outcome; prediction; prognosis.