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. 2013 Nov 21:3:3239.
doi: 10.1038/srep03239.

Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China

Zhenjun Li  1 , Ligui Wang, Weige Sun, Xuexin Hou, Haiyan Yang, Lina Sun, Shuai Xu, Qiangzheng Sun, Jingshan Zhang, Hongbin Song, Hualiang Lin
Affiliations

Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China

Zhenjun Li et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery incidence was mapped at the district level in Wuhan, China. And a generalized additive time series model was used to examine the effect of daily weather factors on bacillary dysentery in the high-risk areas, after controlling for potential confounding factors. Central districts were found to be the high-risk areas. The time series analysis found an acute effect of meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery occurrence. A positive association was found for mean temperature (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase being 0.94% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46% to 1.43% on the lag day 2), while a negative effect was observed for relative humidity and rainfall, the ER for 1% increase in relative humidity was -0.21% (95% CI: -0.34% to -0.08%), and the ER for 1 mm increase in rainfall was -0.23% (95% CI: -0.37% to -0.09%). This study suggests that bacillary dysentery prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. The geographical location of the study area in China ((a) shows the location of Hubei Province in China, (b) is the location of Wuhan in Hubei Province, the map was created with ArcGIS software, 9.0).
Figure 2
Figure 2. The time series of daily bacillary dysentery and meteorological variables in Wuhan, 2006–2011 (unit: Temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), rainfall (mm), and wind speed (m/s)).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Annual average incidence of bacillary dysentery among the districts in Wuhan, China, 2006–2011 (created with ArcGIS software, 9.0).
Figure 4
Figure 4. Excessive risk (ER with 95% CI) in bacillary dysentery in Wuhan for one unit increase in daily meteorological factors for the current day (lag0) to 3 days before the current day (lag 3) and moving average (lag 01, 02 and 03).
Figure 5
Figure 5. Smoothing plots of daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall against bacillary dysentery in Wuhan.
Confounding factors included time trend, day of week and public holidays.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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